Procedure to identify fortified foods in the Dutch branded food database.

Introduction: Information on fortified foods is needed for multiple purposes, including food consumption research and dietary advice. Branded food databases are a valuable source of food label data. European labeling legislation prescribes that food fortification should be indicated in the ingredient list, and nutrient values should be declared under certain conditions. This creates the potential to identify fortified foods in branded food databases, though it is not straightforward and labor-intensive. The aim of our study was to develop an automated approach to identify fortified foods in the Dutch branded food database called LEDA. Methods: An automated procedure, based on a stepwise approach conforming with European labeling legislation, using a list of rules and search terms, was developed to identify fortified foods. Fortification with calcium, folic acid, vitamin B12, and zinc was studied as an example. The results of a random stratified sample with fortified and not-fortified foods were validated by two experts. Results: The automated approach resulted in identifying 1,817 foods fortified with one or more of the selected nutrients in the LEDA dataset (0.94%). The proportions of fortified foods per nutrient were below 0.7%. The classification of fortified/non-fortified foods matched manual validation by experts for the majority of the foods in the sample, i.e., sensitivity and specificity indicating the probability of correctly identifying fortified and non-fortified foods was high (>94.0%). Conclusion: The automated approach is capable of easily and quickly identifying fortified foods in the Dutch branded food database with high accuracy, although some improvements to the automated procedure could be made. In addition, the completeness, correctness, and consistency of the LEDA database can be improved. To fully benefit from this automated approach, it needs to be expanded to cover all micronutrients that may be added to foods.

Predicting the spread of covid-19 and the impact of government measures at the early stage of the pandemic: The Dutch case-Stricter but short-term measures are better.

In this paper, we investigate the spread of COVID-19 and the impact of government measures at the early stage of the pandemic (before the introduction of the vaccines) in the Netherlands. We build a multiple linear regression model to predict the effective reproduction rate using key factors and measures and integrate it with a system dynamics model to predict the spread and the impact of measures against COVID-19. Data from February to November 2020 is used to train the model and data until December 2020 is used to validate the model. We use data about the key factors, e.g., disease specific such as basic reproduction rate and incubation period, weather related factors such as temperature, and controllable factors such as testing capacity. We consider particularly the following measures taken by the government: wearing facemasks, event allowance, school closure, catering services closure, and self-quarantine. Studying the strategy of the Dutch government, we control these measures by following four main policies: doing nothing, mitigation, curbing, elimination. We develop a systems dynamic model to simulate the effect of policies. Based on our numerical experiments, we develop the following main insights: It is more effective to implement strict, sharp measures earlier but for a shorter duration than to introduce measures gradually for a longer duration. This way, we can prevent a quick rise in the number of infected cases but also to reduce the number of days under measures. Combining the measures with a high testing capacity and with effective self-quarantine can significantly reduce the spread of COVID-19.